Markets have settled into a cycle that favors the jobs report as the only critical economic data as far as rates are concerned. This week’s inflation data had a chance to claim/preserve a role as a strong supporting actor, but instead, it basically stood aside and left focus on the labor market and the Fed’s interpretation
Rates actually began the week with a modest move higher for a variety of boring, technical reasons that no one will remember or care about after seeing how things ended up on Friday. The move was already reversing on Wednesday with help from economic data (lower Job Openings in July, not to be confused with Friday’s
This past week was a classic placeholder for mortgage rates. With no big-ticket reports on the calendar, volatility stayed about as low as it gets. But even without fireworks, the market quietly added up small, steady improvements each day, ultimately pushing rates to their lowest levels since October 3rd, 2024. Each move was subtle. Rates never
If you read nothing else below, read this: people are talking about stronger odds of a Fed rate cut in September. Some people assume this means mortgage rates would move lower after that potential rate cut. Those people are wrong, and there is memorable evidence from late 2024 when mortgage rates moved quickly higher from long term lows
Inflation data was in focus this week, with one major report helping mortgage rates officially hit new 10-month lows before the 2nd report pushed back in the other direction. The biggest report, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), was generally friendly for rates despite coming in right in line with forecasts. Some categories showed tariff-related price pressures, but
Last Friday’s jobs report sparked a big rally in the bond market, and thus a big improvement for mortgage rates. This week was very light in terms of market data and volatility, but it helped solidify the improvement from the jobs report. Specifically, the average lender wasn’t even able to fully adjust their rates to account
