This week’s potential volatility was supposed to be all about the big jobs report, but an unexpected headline completely stole the show. On Thursday afternoon, Trump announced he would be directing his representatives to buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These are the bonds that directly impact mortgage rates and such a level of buying would
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected. First up was November’s jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%–well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal
Friends don’t let friends believe the myth that Fed rate cuts result in lower mortgage rates. If you’d rather not immerse yourself in the “why,” here is a solid “what:” This isn’t an anomaly. The Fed Funds Rate governs loans that last less than 24 hours whereas a mortgage can last 30 years. Loans of different
December 10th will be the most interesting Fed announcement in more than a year. It’s the first time since mid-2024 where a rate cut (or lack thereof) has not been a foregone conclusion. This means the Fed has a chance, albeit a small one, to surprise the market. The market currently sees a better-than-85% chance of
This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September’s data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed
After the longest shutdown in history the U.S. government reopened on Thursday. As expected, this has added a bit of upward pressure for rates. Because the prevailing rate range is very narrow, this leaves average 30yr fixed rates in line with their highest levels in more than 2 months. Why would the reopening push rates higher?
